{"id":1067,"date":"2020-03-26T23:49:24","date_gmt":"2020-03-27T03:49:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/?p=1067"},"modified":"2020-04-03T13:59:49","modified_gmt":"2020-04-03T17:59:49","slug":"papers-on-the-jrd-thesis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/2020\/03\/26\/papers-on-the-jrd-thesis\/","title":{"rendered":"Papers on the JRD thesis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In several papers, I&#8217;ve made use of what I call the James-Rudner-Douglas (JRD) thesis: &#8220;Anytime a scientist announces a judgement of fact, they are making a tradeoff between the risk of different kinds of error. This balancing act depends on the costs of each kind of error, so scientific judgement involves assessments of the value of different outcomes.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I have a paper forthcoming in <em>Episteme<\/em> which explores this theme as well as other issues in  William James&#8217; &#8220;The Will to Believe.&#8221; I just sent off my final draft and brought the version on my website up to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ve given a couple of talks in which I mull over possible counterexamples to the thesis. I recently wrote that as a paper, I&#8217;ve now posted a draft. Comments are welcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/job\/paper.php?item=jameswill\">William James on risk, efficacy, and evidentialism<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/job\/paper.php?item=jrdlimits\">The scope of inductive risk<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In several papers, I&#8217;ve made use of what I call the James-Rudner-Douglas (JRD) thesis: &#8220;Anytime a scientist announces a judgement of fact, they are making a tradeoff between the risk of different kinds of error. This balancing act depends on the costs of each kind of error, so scientific judgement involves assessments of the value &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/2020\/03\/26\/papers-on-the-jrd-thesis\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Papers on the JRD thesis&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[9],"tags":[45,23,15],"class_list":["post-1067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-philosophy","tag-draft","tag-pragmatism","tag-values-in-science"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7PjAo-hd","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1067"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1067\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1068,"href":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1067\/revisions\/1068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fecundity.com\/nfw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}